Predictions in Education for 2023 and Beyond
Credit Brad West
Now that we have finished 2022 and 2023 has begun, it is time to think ahead of what might be in store for us in education. These predictions may be quite bold, but are based on trends that we are experiencing as well as responses to challenges in the education field. Take each prediction as it is - a thought of what may be. Let’s work to help education grow and be better for us all this year.
States will compete for teachers
We all know that we are experiencing historic shortages for teachers. And what is fascinating is that this can vary wildly by state. One state can have an incredibly low shortage and neighboring states can have very high shortages (see map below). This will lead to states competing with each other to recruit teachers. You will see this in:
Advertising across state lines to recruit and hire teachers
Recruitment intensifying on university campuses
States increasing salaries over neighboring states
Some states beginning to give teachers a voice in policy decisions, albeit in very limited amounts
Well noted in a great article from the Atlantic, there really is not a teacher shortage, as the teachers and their talent is still here. But, the number of options available for educators to find work is now competing with the option to teach in a school. There are too many factors to solve the teacher shortage in one move, so look for states to take a larger role in recruitment this year.
The darker the color the greater the shortage, credit here
Shortages will continue, even with salary increases
Teachers have gone through a massive departure from schools, which the pandemic certainly sped up. Yes, this was happening before the pandemic, but teacher’s quitting or retiring has far outpaced any success in recruiting or retaining them. And, this shortage varies greatly from state to state. When looking at a map, it seems that the best explanation for this is political views.
This is a non-political blog, and you can see for yourself how voting and shortages seem to be somewhat intertwined. This is just one example of many reasons why even though states will be competing with each other on many fronts (salaries, scholarships, bonuses), the shortage will continue.
Teachers will continue to walk away from the profession due to:
Political culture wars, no one wants to be blamed for a country’s moral failings, especially when it is incredibly untrue
Lack of dignity and poor treatment
The gig economy and better employment options
Improved income and working conditions
As one of the few professions that requires licensing and continual education as well as being led by governments, it is far easier to walk away than ever. Look for those early retirements and changes in career to continue as working from home and gig jobs increase flexibility for earnings, hours, and work-life balance.
Civics programs will start to come back, slowly
In the massive push for measuring and standardizing everything, much like the industrial revolution, there will be a response to the lack of academic freedom and thoughtful education. Civics was among the first programs to be cut in the name of student learning and the harm caused is clear for everyone to see.
As public discourse and misinformation continue to work their way into student lives and therefore the classroom, districts and schools will need an outlet for such conversation. Civics is a great platform for such freedom of speech and honest talk. Not only that, but just as the youngest voting generation made the biggest impact on the 2022 election, we will see political activism rise with our current students. Again, Civics will help provide the mental structure of discourse, argumentation, and the fostering of ideas along with how to engage with them with decency. This will be an agonizingly slow process, but as one district starts and finds success, look for many more to follow.
Virtual will become part of the every day school program
What used to be seen as a novelty will now become more integrated into how a school functions. The pandemic accelerated our trust and need for virtual components to school operations, such as online teaching and learning, faculty meetings, and parent meetings, and this will only increase. While virtual instruction has certainly grown as a response to teacher shortages, online programs will move from being a bandage to a daily supplement for any healthy school.
Schools have finite human capital, but online it is seemingly limitless. That is one of many reasons that I have launched my own business, atlearning.org. Here I partner with schools, districts, and businesses to provide coaching, data consulting, and course development. There is a huge need for these services and it does not make sense for schools to bring on full-time employees to take on these roles. And, as principals and all school admin have jobs that are ever expanding, being able to delegate some of these supports to trusted experts can make a huge difference for a school. If you would like to partner with me on taking the mystery out of learning, visit me at atlearning.org.
Conclusion
2023 is looking like a really wild year ahead. While I would love to say that teachers will be running their districts and boards of education, it looks like that will have to wait for another time. Do what you can with the time and talent that you have and know that all educators have the ability to make an immeasurable impact on their leaders, colleagues, and students. Take care of yourselves and remember that while you are amazing, you cannot do it all.
Be blessed,
Travis Hostetter